why predicting a mass shooting is impossible
Posted by Armando Brito Mendes | Filed under estatística
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Excelente exemplo na previsão de acontecimentos raros
This cartoon explains why predicting a mass shooting is impossible
It’s simple math.
Updated by Brian Resnick and Javier Zarracina on June 15, 2016, 10:30 a.m. ET
In the wake of mass shootings, many people wonder how they could have been prevented. Were there warning signs that should have been heeded? Was the person mentally ill? Did he or she hold extremist views?
The sad truth is that the only personal factors that reliably correlate with mass shooters are being young and male. There are a lot of young, angsty men in this country. That makes prediction hard.
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Tags: data mining, previsão
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