Lotteries, Covid, and Communicating Risk

Uma boa tentativa de explicar o conceito de risco de forma simples

Wayne Oldford

May 1, 2022

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Two sides of the same coin?

A few years ago, I was the “go to guy” at the University of Waterloo, asked to speak to local media, whenever a lottery jackpot got stupendously large (and the news cycle got exceedingly slow). My purpose was to relate to their audience the size of the chance of winning in a way that was quick yet comprehensible, which I did with some success on local radio and television stations.

Inevitably, though, the next day I would hear back of listener disappointment – that some of the fun of purchasing a ticket had been removed. Joy came from anticipating winning the prize and my exposition killed that for many, by them having gained an appreciation of the chance of actually winning.

I felt a little bit bad about this. I wanted people to understand the probabilities but I didn’t want to be a kill joy.

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Explained Visually

Boas explicações visuais iterativas de conceitos de ML e matemática

Ordinary Least Squares Regression

Where do betas come from?

EV 9 – 2015/02/12

Principal Component Analysis

Axis of easy.

EV 8 – 2015/01/29

Image Kernels

The kernel’s secret recipe.

EV 6 – 2015/01/20

Eigenvectors and Eigenvalues

No, no. Do it eigen!

EV 5 – 2014/11/28

Pi (π)

Pi me to the moon.

EV 4 – 2014/11/21

Sine and Cosine

Sine on the line.

EV 3 – 2014/11/14


Growing, growing, gone. AB

EV 2 – 2014/11/07

Markov Chains

Mark on, Markov EV 1 – 2014/10/30 Conditional probability You probably wouldn’t understand.

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Journal of Physics: Conference Series

longa lista de artigos resultantes de conferências de Matemática e Física

The open access Journal of Physics: Conference Series (JPCS) provides a fast, versatile and cost-effective proceedings publication service. 


Voronoi diagram from smooshing paint between glass

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Uma abordagem original aos diagramas de Voronoi.

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How To Forecast Time Series Data With Multiple Seasonal Periods

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Análise de séries complexas com múltiplos períodos sazonais

Time series data is produced in domains such as IT operations, manufacturing, and telecommunications. Examples of time series data include the number of client logins to a website on a daily basis, cell phone traffic collected per minute, and temperature variation in a region by the hour. Forecasting a time series signal ahead of time helps us make decisions such as planning capacity and estimating demand. Previous time series analysis blog posts focused on processing time series data that resides on Greenplum database using SQL functions. In this post, I will examine the modeling steps involved in forecasting a time series sequence with multiple seasonal periods. The various steps involved are outlined below:

  • Multiple seasonality is modelled with the help of fourier series with different periods
  • External regressors in the form of fourier terms are added to an ARIMA model to account for the seasonal behavior
  • Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) is used to find the best fit model


A Simple Introduction to Complex Stochastic Processes

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Stochastic processes have many applications, including in finance and physics. It is an interesting model to represent many phenomena. Unfortunately the theory behind it is very difficult, making it accessible to a few ‘elite’ data scientists, and not popular in business contexts.

1. Construction of Time-Continuous Stochastic Processes: Brownian Motion

2. General Properties


Data Analysis Method: Mathematics Optimization to Build Decision Making

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Uma pequena introdução à utilização de otimização na análise de dados

Optimization is a problem associated with the best decision that is effective and efficient decisions whether it is worth maximum or minimum by way of determining a satisfactory solution.

Optimization is not a new science. It has grown even since Newton in the 17th century discovered how to count roots. Currently the science of optimization is still evolving in terms of techniques and applications. Many cases or problems in everyday life that involve optimization to solve them. Lately much developed especially in the emergence of new techniques to solve the problem of optimization. To mention some, among others, conic programming, semi definite programming, semi infinite programming and some meta heuristic techniques.

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Earliest Known Uses of Words of Mathematics

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um curioso site onde se registam os significados mais antigos para termos matemáticos

These pages attempt to show the first uses of various words used in mathematics. Research for these pages is ongoing, and a citation should not be assumed to be the earliest use unless it is indicated as such.

Mathematical Words: Origins and Sources by John Aldrich is an excellent article and companion to this web site.

Please see also Earliest Uses of Various Mathematical Symbols, Images of Mathematicians on Postage Stamps, and Ambiguously Defined Mathematical Terms at the High School Level.

These pages are maintained by Jeff Miller, a teacher at Gulf High School in New Port Richey, Florida. The principal contributors are John Aldrich, Julio González Cabillón, Carlos César de Araújo, and James A. Landau. Other contributors are Manoel de Campos Almeida, Antranig Basman, Dave Cohen, John Conway, Martin Davis, Karen Dee Michalowicz, Joanne M. Despres of Merriam-Webster Inc., Bill Dubuque, Mark Dunn, John G. Fauvel, Walter Felscher, Giovanni Ferraro, Tom Foregger, Michael N. Fried, John Harper, Antreas P. Hatzipolakis, Barnabas Hughes, Samuel S. Kutler, Franz Lemmermeyer, Avinoam Mann, Peter M. Neumann, Ken Pledger, Paul Pollack, Jim Propp, Aldo I. Ramirez, Lee Rudolph, Randy K. Schwartz, Max Urchs, Tom Walsh, William C. Waterhouse, and David Wilkins.

“Perhaps I may without immodesty lay claim to the appellation of Mathematical Adam, as I believe that I have given more names (passed into general circulation) of the creatures of mathematical reason than all the other mathematicians of the age combined.” —James Joseph Sylvester, Nature 37 (1888), p. 152.


R news and tutorials R bloggers

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Montes de blogs sobre R.

Here you will find daily news and tutorials about R, contributed by over 573 bloggers.

Top 3 Posts from the past 2 days

Top 9 articles of the week

  1. Installing R packages
  2. In-depth introduction to machine learning in 15 hours of expert videos
  3. New Version of RStudio (v0.99) Available Now
  4. Using apply, sapply, lapply in R
  5. Review of ‘Advanced R’ by Hadley Wickham
  6. Scatterplots
  7. An R Enthusiast Goes Pythonic!
  8. Open data sets you can use with R
  9. Basics of Histograms


Rtips. Revival 2014!

Uma animação com todos os lugares referidos numa canção de johnny cash

Uma animação com todos os lugares referidos numa canção de johnny cash

Montes de exemplos de R numa única longa página.

Table of Contents
Section: Original Preface
Section 1: Data Input/Output
Section 2: Working with data frames: Recoding, selecting, aggregating
Section 3: Matrices and vector operations
Section 4: Applying functions, tapply, etc
Section 5: Graphing
Section 6: Common Statistical Chores
Section 7: Model Fitting (Regression-type things)
Section 8: Packages
Section 9: Misc. web resources
Section 10: R workspace
Section 11: Interface with the operating system
Section 12: Stupid R tricks: basics you can’t live without
Section 13: Misc R usages I find interesting

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