Lotteries, Covid, and Communicating Risk
Posted by Armando Brito Mendes | Filed under estatística, lições, matemática, materiais ensino
Uma boa tentativa de explicar o conceito de risco de forma simples
Wayne Oldford
May 1, 2022
Two sides of the same coin?
A few years ago, I was the “go to guy” at the University of Waterloo, asked to speak to local media, whenever a lottery jackpot got stupendously large (and the news cycle got exceedingly slow). My purpose was to relate to their audience the size of the chance of winning in a way that was quick yet comprehensible, which I did with some success on local radio and television stations.
Inevitably, though, the next day I would hear back of listener disappointment – that some of the fun of purchasing a ticket had been removed. Joy came from anticipating winning the prize and my exposition killed that for many, by them having gained an appreciation of the chance of actually winning.
I felt a little bit bad about this. I wanted people to understand the probabilities but I didn’t want to be a kill joy.
Tags: probabilidades, risco
