{"id":1095,"date":"2013-12-18T12:35:38","date_gmt":"2013-12-18T13:35:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/?p=1095"},"modified":"2013-12-18T12:35:38","modified_gmt":"2013-12-18T13:35:38","slug":"why-predictive-modelers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/estatistica\/why-predictive-modelers\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Predictive Modelers Should be Suspicious of Statistical Tests"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1096\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/abbottanalytics.blogspot.pt\/2012\/11\/why-predictive-modelers-should-be.html\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1096\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1096\" src=\"http:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/files\/2013\/12\/Predictive-Analytics-Times-300x78.png\" alt=\"Um excelente exemplo de correla\u00e7\u00f5es esp\u00farias\" width=\"300\" height=\"78\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/files\/2013\/12\/Predictive-Analytics-Times-300x78.png 300w, https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/files\/2013\/12\/Predictive-Analytics-Times-1024x267.png 1024w, https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/files\/2013\/12\/Predictive-Analytics-Times.png 1059w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1096\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Um excelente exemplo de correla\u00e7\u00f5es esp\u00farias<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333;font-family: Georgia, serif;line-height: 20.796875px\">Well, the danger is<\/span><span style=\"color: #333333;font-family: Georgia, serif;line-height: 20.796875px\"> really not the statistical test <\/span><em>per se<\/em><span style=\"color: #333333;font-family: Georgia, serif;line-height: 20.796875px\">, it the interpretation of the statistical test. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333;font-family: Georgia, serif;line-height: 20.796875px\">Yesterday I tweeted (@deanabb) this fun factoid: &#8220;Redskins predict Romney wins POTUS #overfit. if Redskins lose home game before election =&gt; challenger wins (17\/18) http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/gameon\/2012\/11\/04\/nfl-redskins-rule-romney\/1681023\/&#8221; I frankly had never heard of this &#8220;rule&#8221; before and found it quite striking. It even has its own Wikipedia page (http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Redskins_Rule). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333;font-family: Georgia, serif;line-height: 20.796875px\">For those of us in the predictive analytics or data mining community, and those of us who use statistical tests to help out interpreting small data, 17\/18 we know is a hugely significant finding. This can frequently be good: statistical tests will help us gain intuition about value of relationships in data even when they aren&#8217;t obvious. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, the danger is really not the statistical test per se, it the interpretation of the statistical test. Yesterday I tweeted (@deanabb) this fun factoid: &#8220;Redskins predict Romney wins POTUS #overfit. if Redskins lose home game before election =&gt; challenger wins (17\/18) http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/gameon\/2012\/11\/04\/nfl-redskins-rule-romney\/1681023\/&#8221; I frankly had never heard of this &#8220;rule&#8221; before and found it [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[103,102],"tags":[126,121,157],"class_list":["post-1095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-data-mining","category-estatistica","tag-pasw-statistics","tag-inferencia","tag-software-estatistica"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/159"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1095"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1095\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1098,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1095\/revisions\/1098"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uac.pt\/amendes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}